Live quality-gate scores for every Polymarket World Cup market: real spread cost, book depth, and quote freshness — the venue truth the apps hide. Kalshi cross-venue next. No picks. No "89% accurate" alerts. Just liquidity and price, honestly.
| TEAM | BEST ASK | IMPLIED | VENUE | SPREAD | DEPTH | GATE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇪🇸 Spain | 22¢ | 22% | KALSHI | 1.0¢ | $31k | PASS |
| 🇦🇷 Argentina | 18¢ | 18% | PM US | 1.2¢ | $27k | PASS |
| 🇫🇷 France | 15¢ | 15% | KALSHI | 1.1¢ | $24k | PASS |
| 🏴 England | 12¢ | 12% | KALSHI | 2.4¢ | $8k | WATCH |
| 🇧🇷 Brazil | 11¢ | 11% | PM US | 2.8¢ | $6k | WATCH |
| 🇩🇪 Germany | 9¢ | 9% | PM US | 5.5¢ | $900 | FAIL |
Every market is scored on spread, depth at best, quote freshness, and time-to-resolution — the same deterministic gate our paper engine trades through. PASS means the market can actually absorb your order.
The venue shows you a price; we show what you'd really pay round-trip. A 9¢ spread on a 71¢ favorite is a ~6% tax before kickoff. Most "free money" posts die right here.
Calibrated model context, not picks. We publish our calibration ledger — including the 8 hyped edges we tested and killed. When we don't know, the card says so.